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July fourth warnings amid US virus spread – Australian Associated Press

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Alabama and several other US states have reported record daily increases in coronavirus cases as Florida’s most populous county imposed a curfew ahead of the Independence Day weekend. 

North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alaska all saw new daily highs in confirmed cases of COVID-19, while Florida’s caseload came in just below the prior day’s record high.

Coronavirus cases are rising in 37 of the 50 US states.

The surge in cases in southern and…



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Macron – Australian Associated Press

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French President Emmanuel Macron has promised angry crowds in Lebanon’s shattered capital that aid to rebuild the city would not go to “corrupt hands” and urged the political authorities to carry out reforms.

Macron travelled straight to Beirut after the biggest blast in its history tore through the city, killing at least 145 people, injuring 5,000 and leaving a swathe of the capital in tatters.

After visiting the port at the epicentre of the blast,…



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Northern Chinese City Issues Health Warning After Resident Dies of Plague – Caixin Global

One resident of a village in Inner Mongolia died of enteric plague, but no other infections have been discovered

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Authorities in a city in North Chinas Inner Mongolia autonomous region have sealed off a village and issued a public health warning after one resident died of plague.
The Baotou health committee said in a statement (link in Chinese) on Thursday that the patient, who died of circulatory system failure on Sunday, was confirmed to have contracted enteric plague, a rare form of plague that attacks the digestive system.
Local health officials have closed off the village where the patient lived and …

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Get on top of the outbreaks and numbers will start to drop rapidly – The Age

It is not surprising that we haven’t yet seen a big dent in new case numbers because there are still many cases being found that are linked to existing outbreaks, and these will mask any reductions in the background rate.

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All these modifications require edits to parameters in the model, including, most importantly, the rate of transmission, or effective reproductive rate.
In an evolving outbreak where evidence on intervention effectiveness is still being built, this is a challenge, and models need ongoing adjustment and fine tuning, with real-time analysis of new daily data strengthening predictions.
So models arent going to tell us how many cases we will have on Sunday, or over the next week, but the more we u…

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