Speculation about US politics, as well as negotiations within US Congress regarding a US fiscal stimulus bill, will be the major drivers in the global financial markets. Polling continues to
suggest a Joe Biden victory in the US general election, with the balance of probabilities seemingly indicating a so-called ‘blue wave’, which would see Democrats seize control of both houses of congress, with the markets also positioning for a subsequently bigger spending government after the election. The markets also appears to be less concerned about the possibility of a contested election result. Although it remains inverted, the US VIX Futures curve has flattened considerably in recent weeks.
SPI Futures are…