Welcome to today’s US election briefing for Australia.
One of the many reasons to be cautious about predicting the outcome of this election based on polling (apart from, you know, the whole 2016 thing) is uncertainty around voting itself in the US, particularly in the midst of the pandemic.
One issue is how many mail-in ballots will actually be counted. As this excellent piece in Politico explains, Republicans have had some success in court in preventing ballots that arrive after election day from being included. In states that come down to the wire, such decisions could prove decisive.