As a group, the Victorian ALP is politically walking dead. It cannot win the next state election in November 2022.
That is a pretty big claim. Predicting an election outcome two years out is foolish by any measure. But here’s the reasoning.
In Australia’s current political environment each major party can only rely on a locked–on vote of about 35 per cent each. The task at every election is to grab enough of the remaining 30 per cent of swinging voters — or their preferences — to end up with 50 per cent plus one on election day.
As leader of Victoria’s ALP Dan Andrews is running a Covid ‘management’ process that is entirely politically focused. He’s playing exclusively to his perceived core vot